Using AI and machine learning for scenario planning and design (MDA, SBIR/STTR Phase II) — a federal contract (USAspending)

"Scenario planning and design" refers to the work of anticipating a range of possible situations in advance and building response plans or configurations for each. In a defense context, there are many uncertain factors, such as an adversary's moves and changes in the environment, and the combinations of possibilities to consider can become enormous. This contract is a research and development effort aimed at using AI and machine learning to support planning that quickly examines such a large number of possibilities.

This matters because computers, drawing on learned knowledge, may be able to organize and compare a number of situations beyond what people can cover by hand alone. It can be seen as research that explores where AI can be applied as a means of raising both the quality and the speed of planning at the same time. The fact that the Missile Defense Agency, the awarding organization, is funding this theme itself indicates that advancing scenario analysis is recognized as a challenge in the defense field.

Viewed more broadly, this case is one example of how SBIR/STTR (the U.S. program supporting research and development by small businesses) connects specific government challenges with the technical capabilities of small firms. Phase II is the stage where a technology whose promise was confirmed in initial study (Phase I) is developed into a form closer to practical use. Applying AI to planning support is a theme relevant well beyond defense, and it offers a clue to what kinds of technology development public funding is encouraging. The specific results of this research are not stated in the source.