U.S. Federal Reserve
Daily
Percent T10Y2Y
10Y-2Y Treasury spread (yield curve)
Level
0.20%
▼
Prev 0.25% (-0.05 pp)
2026-09-21 as of ・Percent
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield (the slope of the yield curve). A negative value (inversion) has historically been a leading signal of recession.
Key points
- 10-year yield minus 2-year yield (curve slope)
- A negative value (inversion) is a recession signal
- Lead times vary and there are exceptions
- Watch the sign (+/-) and level
How to read it
Positive is a normal upward-sloping curve (long > short); negative is an inversion. Inversions have preceded past recessions with high frequency, but with variable lead times and exceptions. Watch the sign and level.
Trend
Recent trend
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | 0.2 | -0.05 |
| 2026-09-18 | 0.25 | -0.02 |
| 2026-09-17 | 0.27 | 0 |
| 2026-09-16 | 0.27 | -0.06 |
| 2026-09-15 | 0.33 | +0.01 |
| 2026-09-14 | 0.32 | -0.01 |
| 2026-09-11 | 0.33 | -0.06 |
| 2026-09-10 | 0.39 | -0.01 |
| 2026-09-09 | 0.4 | -0.01 |
| 2026-09-08 | 0.41 | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | 0.41 | -0.02 |
| 2026-09-03 | 0.43 | +0.03 |
FAQ
What is an inversion?
Normally long-term yields exceed short-term ones; an inversion is when short rates rise above long rates. It has often preceded recessions, but not always.
Why is it a recession signal?
When markets price future rate cuts (a slowdown), long-term yields tend to fall below short-term yields.
Sources (primary)
This article is an independent summary based on the official U.S. data below. Please verify the latest and exact details with the official sources.
- FRED (series page)：T10Y2Y
- Source agency：U.S. Federal Reserve
- FRED last updated：2026-09-21 16:03:33-05
FRED® is a registered trademark of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This site is not endorsed or certified by FRED / the St. Louis Fed.