U.S. Federal Reserve
Daily
Percent T10Y2Y
10Y-2Y Treasury spread (yield curve)
Level
0.45%
▼
Prev 0.47% (-0.02 pp)
2026-08-03 as of ・Percent
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield (the slope of the yield curve). A negative value (inversion) has historically been a leading signal of recession.
Key points
- 10-year yield minus 2-year yield (curve slope)
- A negative value (inversion) is a recession signal
- Lead times vary and there are exceptions
- Watch the sign (+/-) and level
How to read it
Positive is a normal upward-sloping curve (long > short); negative is an inversion. Inversions have preceded past recessions with high frequency, but with variable lead times and exceptions. Watch the sign and level.
Trend
Recent trend
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 0.45 | -0.02 |
| 2026-07-31 | 0.47 | +0.02 |
| 2026-07-30 | 0.45 | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | 0.45 | +0.1 |
| 2026-07-28 | 0.35 | +0.01 |
| 2026-07-27 | 0.34 | -0.02 |
| 2026-07-24 | 0.36 | +0.02 |
| 2026-07-23 | 0.34 | -0.02 |
| 2026-07-22 | 0.36 | -0.01 |
| 2026-07-21 | 0.37 | -0.02 |
| 2026-07-20 | 0.39 | +0.02 |
| 2026-07-17 | 0.37 | -0.04 |
FAQ
What is an inversion?
Normally long-term yields exceed short-term ones; an inversion is when short rates rise above long rates. It has often preceded recessions, but not always.
Why is it a recession signal?
When markets price future rate cuts (a slowdown), long-term yields tend to fall below short-term yields.
Sources (primary)
This article is an independent summary based on the official U.S. data below. Please verify the latest and exact details with the official sources.
- FRED (series page)：T10Y2Y
- Source agency：U.S. Federal Reserve
- FRED last updated：2026-08-03 16:03:23-05
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