U.S. Federal Reserve
Daily
T10Y2Y
10Y-2Y Treasury spread (yield curve)
Level
0.41%
▲
Prev 0.38% (+0.03 pt)
2026-06-08 as of
The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield (the slope of the yield curve). A negative value (inversion) has historically been a leading signal of recession.
Key points
- 10-year yield minus 2-year yield (curve slope)
- A negative value (inversion) is a recession signal
- Lead times vary and there are exceptions
- Watch the sign (+/-) and level
How to read it
Positive is a normal upward-sloping curve (long > short); negative is an inversion. Inversions have preceded past recessions with high frequency, but with variable lead times and exceptions. Watch the sign and level.
Recent trend
| Period | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 0.41 | +0.03 |
| 2026-06-05 | 0.38 | -0.04 |
| 2026-06-04 | 0.42 | +0.01 |
| 2026-06-03 | 0.41 | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | 0.41 | -0.01 |
| 2026-06-01 | 0.42 | -0.05 |
| 2026-05-29 | 0.47 | +0.01 |
| 2026-05-28 | 0.46 | -0.02 |
| 2026-05-27 | 0.48 | -0.01 |
| 2026-05-26 | 0.49 | +0.06 |
| 2026-05-22 | 0.43 | -0.06 |
| 2026-05-21 | 0.49 | -0.04 |
FAQ
What is an inversion?
Normally long-term yields exceed short-term ones; an inversion is when short rates rise above long rates. It has often preceded recessions, but not always.
Why is it a recession signal?
When markets price future rate cuts (a slowdown), long-term yields tend to fall below short-term yields.
Sources (primary)
This article is an independent summary based on the official U.S. data below. Please verify the latest and exact details with the official sources.
- FRED (series page)：T10Y2Y
- Source agency：U.S. Federal Reserve
- FRED last updated：2026-06-08 16:02:18-05
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