U.S. Federal Reserve Daily Percent T10Y2Y

10Y-2Y Treasury spread (yield curve)

Level

0.47% ▲

Prev 0.45% (+0.02 pp)

2026-10-05 as of ・Percent

The 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield (the slope of the yield curve). A negative value (inversion) has historically been a leading signal of recession.

Key points

10-year yield minus 2-year yield (curve slope)
A negative value (inversion) is a recession signal
Lead times vary and there are exceptions
Watch the sign (+/-) and level

How to read it

Positive is a normal upward-sloping curve (long > short); negative is an inversion. Inversions have preceded past recessions with high frequency, but with variable lead times and exceptions. Watch the sign and level.

Trend

Year by year

Shows the level (%) from 2016-10 to 2026-09, grouped by calendar year. Daily values are FRED monthly averages.

Latest0.47%2026-10-05

Highest monthly average1.47%Apr 2021

Lowest monthly average-0.93%Jul 2023

Year	Average	Year-end	High	Low
2026 (months 1–9)	0.49%	0.34%	0.68%	0.34%
2025	0.48%	0.64%	0.64%	0.24%
2024	-0.16%	0.17%	0.17%	-0.43%
2023	-0.63%	-0.44%	-0.27%	-0.93%
2022	-0.03%	-0.67%	0.78%	-0.67%
2021	1.18%	0.79%	1.47%	0.79%
2020	0.50%	0.80%	0.80%	0.17%
2019	0.17%	0.25%	0.26%	0.05%
2018	0.38%	0.16%	0.68%	0.16%
2017	0.93%	0.56%	1.23%	0.56%
2016 (months 10–12)	1.13%	1.30%	1.30%	0.92%

Recent trend

Period	Value	Change
2026-10-05	0.47	+0.02
2026-10-02	0.45	-0.01
2026-10-01	0.46	+0.05
2026-09-30	0.41	+0.04
2026-09-29	0.37	+0.05
2026-09-28	0.32	-0.04
2026-09-25	0.36	+0.05
2026-09-24	0.31	+0.05
2026-09-23	0.26	+0.01
2026-09-22	0.25	+0.05
2026-09-21	0.2	-0.05
2026-09-18	0.25	-0.02

FAQ

10Y-2Y Treasury spread (yield curve): what is the latest reading?

As of Oct 5, 2026, it is 0.47%. Since Oct 2016, the high was 1.47% (Apr 2021) and the low was -0.93% (Jul 2023). Highs and lows are monthly averages.

What is an inversion?

Normally long-term yields exceed short-term ones; an inversion is when short rates rise above long rates. It has often preceded recessions, but not always.

Why is it a recession signal?

When markets price future rate cuts (a slowdown), long-term yields tend to fall below short-term yields.

Sources (primary)

This article is an independent summary based on the official U.S. data below. Please verify the latest and exact details with the official sources.

FRED (series page)：T10Y2Y
Source agency：U.S. Federal Reserve
FRED last updated：2026-10-05 16:03:24-05

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